RPI Graph Update-4

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day12

Wednesday night was disappointing on many fronts, not the least of which is the RPI calcs. With the new formula, home losses hurt much more than road losses and it shows in State’s drop down frightfully close to bubble territory:

State’s RPI through 1/26

As predicted, GW fell out of the top-50 (to #55) giving State a 1-3 record vs the RPI Top 50. Glancing quickly down GW’s schedule, it may prove difficult for GW to make the top-50 at the end of the year.

Here’s a quick glance at the conference and how teams have performed over the last week:

 

1/19

1/26

NCAAT Status

Duke

1

1

IN

Maryland

25

20

Boston College

30

21

North Carolina St

23

32

North Carolina

40

43

Bubble

Clemson

56

49

Virginia

82

61

Wake Forest

55

73

Florida St

71

79

OUT

Miami-Florida

76

88

Georgia Tech

103

119

Virginia Tech

132

134

Moving
Up

Moving
Down

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

12 Responses to RPI Graph Update-4

  1. JeremyHyatt 01/27/2006 at 2:04 AM #

    How can you say that nc state drops frightfully close to bubble territory, when if you would rank them all again today, nc state would still be a top 25 team in the AP. I don’t care to took at these stats, I’m more concerned with how NC State finishes in their conferences. If they finish a 2 or 3, which would require them to keep doing what they have been doing thus far, they will be IN, no question. More than half of the ACC conference schedule remains, let’s not go having panic attacks just yet.

  2. class of '74 01/27/2006 at 7:34 AM #

    With performances like the one against Seton Hall it would not take very much for the Pack to fall out of the top 60. As good as they have looked at times it seems improbable they would take a tumble of that proportion. But inconsistentcy has been Herb’s trademark, so who can say what may happen.

  3. Jeff 01/27/2006 at 8:01 AM #

    Jeremy, I don’t see any panic attacks. The dude just shared straight facts and common sense.

    “I don’t care to took at these stats”

    No reason to try to have much discussion when people are this honest about what their willing to consider.

  4. VaWolf82 01/27/2006 at 10:13 AM #

    How can you say that nc state drops frightfully close to bubble territory,

    How about….because it’s the truth? If you would bother to click on the link labeled “NCAAT Status”, you could see the historical trends of at-large bids vs RPI ranking. For major schools, LSU holds the distinction of being the highest-ranked team (#38) not to receive an at-large bid. Since you didn’t find the link, here it is again:

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2006/01/01/a-look-back-at-the-bubble/

    By the way, how many more weeks can State lose two of three and stay ranked?

  5. Waxhaw 01/27/2006 at 1:12 PM #

    If NC State is ranked at the end of the year, the RPI won’t be a concern. Of course, if we are ranked, we will have won enough games that the RPI should take care of itself.

    The Clemson game has become a HUGE game.

  6. Jim 01/27/2006 at 1:50 PM #

    I don’t really follow the RPI stuff until the end of the season. Which is also my attitude about football recruiting. It saves me a lot of nervous energy.

    Anyway, IMO the horrendous loss to S Hall will be minimized almost completely if we can win at Clemson. If we lose at Clemson then we may be in danger of a minor (or major) “death spiral.” So the loss just sort of magnifies the Clemson game more than anything else.

  7. SaccoV 01/27/2006 at 1:51 PM #

    I would like to take a moment to commend VaWolf for his resplendent work in showing the numbers of getting into the tournament. Bravo! Next, this team is by no means a lock for the NCAA tournament. Regardless of final position going into the tournament, a third place finish coupled with a quick exit in the ACCT could spell NIT in March. Given the lack of quality RPI wins so far and the lack of substantive RPI teams ahead, State must finish strong to get that 4 or 5 in the Dance. No question.

  8. Fish 01/27/2006 at 8:17 PM #

    We are no lock for any type of tournament.

    I think you will see thr true State team over the next few games–

  9. JeremyHyatt 01/27/2006 at 10:05 PM #

    “I don’t care to took at these stats�

    “No reason to try to have much discussion when people are this honest about what their willing to consider.”

    Sure use the “these are facts” card; but you can present stats that have positive connotation or not, or strategically present them at times where they do have a negative connotation. Presenting those stats in hand with stating “frightfully close to bubble territory” as fact is NOT the same as unbiased statistic and fact showing. You might as well have said “oh look, the sky is falling, and look how bad it is!!” You’re using statistics at opportune times to support your anti-Herb agenda, honestly you guys are famous for this.

  10. VaWolf82 01/28/2006 at 12:12 AM #

    Presenting those stats in hand with stating “frightfully close to bubble territory� as fact is NOT the same as unbiased statistic and fact showing. You might as well have said “oh look, the sky is falling, and look how bad it is!!�

    Did I ever say the sky was falling?….did I predict that State would end up in the NIT? You are making stuff up as you go along whistling in the dark.

    Fact….Major schools from BCS conferences have found themselves in the NIT with RPI’s in the upper-30’s.

    Fact….NC State’s RPI ranking dropped from 23 to 32 in one week.

    Fact….State’s RPI has dropped close to the start of the bubble…which is not the same thing as being on the bubble. Did you have trouble understanding the table where State is clearly labeled as being “IN” the NCAAT?

    You sound just like that UNC fan that was whining at the last update accusing me of making arbitrary classifications. The classifications are based on historical trends….nothing more and nothing less. Just because you don’t like them hardly proves that they are biased.

    Once again, the historical trends are summarized here:

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2006/01/01/a-look-back-at-the-bubble/

    Feel free to show me where I am being biased or skewing the numbers.

  11. VaWolf82 01/28/2006 at 12:24 AM #

    I don’t really follow the RPI stuff until the end of the season.

    I didn’t either until I decided to compile the RPI rankings of the teams that received and missed on at-large bids. When the selection committee says that it is one of the tools that they use….they are certainly not kidding.

    If you haven’t look at the Dance Card yet, spend five minutes reading the first page of their site:

    http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

    The RPI ranking and record against top ranked teams have been shown to produce predictable results. This reinforced in my mind, the importance of the RPI ranking.

    When State’s RPI was steadily climbing, it was fun to plot. Unless State turns their play around quickly, the graphing will cease to be much fun.

  12. Jeff 01/28/2006 at 10:06 AM #

    Just a word of advice…..we’re not looking to provide a forum to get sidetracked with people blatantly misconstruing author’s entries and choosing to apply subjective emotions and motivations to authors. It’s way too “Pack Pride Message Board” for the level of conversation that we are looking to generate.

    Thanks

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