More RPI Fun

Thanks to a thread started by grantwolf, I was able to graph State’s RPI ranking starting in early December. Obviously the important thing is where you finish, not where you start:

Graph of 2006 RPI Ranking

I’ll try to update the graph linked here though this blog entry won’t move to the top when I do.

The key thing that I wanted to point out is that with the BC win, State’s ranking has moved out of the “Bubble Range” and into the “Lock” range. In case you’ve forgotten, I have already pointed out the correlations between RPI ranking and the infamous Bubble. Based on recent history, here’s a summary of what has happened for those teams ranked lower than #35:

Year

No of At-Large Bids

with RPI Ranking

#36-#45

#46-#55

#56+

1999

5

4

1

2000

5

5

0

2001

5

2

0

2002

6

4

1

2003

5

3

0

2004

4

3

1

2005

7

1

2

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

33 Responses to More RPI Fun

  1. Mr. O 01/13/2006 at 5:12 PM #

    Jeff: This year’s freshman class has one guy out for the year with an injury. He was definitely going to play. They all play behind 7 good players. Even Gavin Grant is the 2nd leading rebounder on our team despite everyone being on his case. So there isn’t a lot of playing time to be had. They will be inexperienced, but they definitely have talent.

    Next year’s freshman class doesn’t sound anywhere near as bad as you make it out to be. Bob Gibbons said we have two top 50 players. Werner was described as better than Evtimov at the same stage. Then we have a transfer that Brick Oettinger had a great writeup on in the ACC Sports Journal.

    This class appears better than the class that included Bennerman, Flatt, Mejia and the tall skinny guy from Burlington that never played. Also, it appears similar than the next class that was Mike O’Donell, Engin Atsur and Bethel. We kind of have some wild cards in the latest class. Hopefully they will pan out. I think our staff has a much better eye for talent these days, especially in determing what kids fit our program (and don’t transfer) and that will help us win. I would predict a dropoff next year, but hopefully it won’t be a big one.

    My concerns over losing Cedric (God forbid we lose him after this year) and Brackman are much bigger. That is why seeing who fills out the Chris Wright class will be so interesting.

    We definitely need a “peak year” this season to hang our hat on.

  2. VaWolf82 01/13/2006 at 6:55 PM #

    If having Grant as your backup PG does not scare you, it should

    It appears to me that Herb is looking to correct this situation by working Grant some in the back court this year. In addition to GG, Travis Ferguson will be available as soon as exams are through in Dec. Fells may or not be able to help. There is also a freshman guard (Davis?) that will be coming this fall. So State will have more than just GG to back up Atsur.

    Now we have all seen with the QB struggles the past two years that just having bodies doesn’t guarantee a thing. However, there are several reasonable possibilities at guard for next year. I refuse to accept PD’s rosy projections of the future…so it’s only fair to reject gloomy predictions while there is reason for hope.

  3. VaWolf82 01/13/2006 at 6:56 PM #

    My concerns over losing Cedric (God forbid we lose him after this year) and Brackman are much bigger.

    This is the meltdown scenario.

  4. PACDADDY 01/13/2006 at 7:22 PM #

    “But the freshman class isn’t getting ANY playing time (and next year’s freshman class is one of Sendek’s worst rated class). ”

    I’m sorry…but this is too funny…Come on Jeff. On top of that, we got one of the nations top PG’s coming in 2007(want to bet he helps our recruiting?

    Next season…assuming Brack, Atsur, Grant(immigration issue) and Ced return, with Fells/Ferguson(getting solid practice time) and Costner/McCauley(who looks good this season)…not counting the freshmen…things look pretty solid next season(not just ‘ok’).

    IE scored 0 points against BC(took 2 shots i think)…everyone(who doesn’t have a clue) thought Bethel added no value last season, or lets just say, they thought his injuries were of no consequence, and Bennerman will be replaced by Ferg/Fells(rated higher out of HS).

    I’d like to see Fells get more PT and I think he will later in season, but Bennerman deserves 30-38 minutes a game.

    “But, traditionally that kind of inexperienced team is ripe for an excuse-mongering season in Raleigh”

    Most of the “excuse mongering” has been about untimely injuries…not inexperience(coach controls that). NOW…if we talk about Powell leaving…NOBODY EXPECTED THAT and HERB WASN”T PREPARED FOR THAT. Coaches are responsible to be prepared for things they can control within the program. Everyone knew M Williams would leave UNC after one season…Everyone knew Bosh would leave GT after one season…nobody expected Powell to leave…especially Herb.

    Ced could leave after this season and that would hurt( I don’t thinks he’s the kind of guy that would do that)…Brack could leave after this year(MLBB…couldn’t blame him for that)…that could hurt…But that’s college BB in todays world.

    BTW…can we use the Predictor final rankings from now on when quoting all those RPI rankings of past…21…13…45…22 looks alot more POSITIVE in final polls over the last 4 seasons. 😉 DOn’t you think?

  5. PACDADDY 01/13/2006 at 7:26 PM #

    ” refuse to accept PD’s rosy projections of the future…so it’s only fair to reject gloomy predictions while there is reason for hope.”

    That’s a fair statement..at least you’re consistent 😉

    Ced and Brack…they are the key.

  6. class of '74 01/14/2006 at 9:38 AM #

    As nice a player as Ced is he’s no where near ready to jump to the next level and I think he realizes this. I don’t think we have another Josh Powell situation with Ced.

    Next years class while not as good as Carolina’s or Duke’s is very promising. The least known may turn out to be the best of the bunch in Dan Werner. And follow that with Chris Wright and who knows what his pledge may bring along.
    In my mind it’s the best work Herb has done to date. We may not be as good as our immediate neighbors but still respectable.

  7. class of '74 01/14/2006 at 10:34 AM #

    Also, if Herb is smart he will play Fells especially in the games like BC where the outcome is not in doubt. To not play him is a huge mistake and will come back to haunt him oneway or another.

  8. VaWolf82 01/14/2006 at 11:01 AM #

    Ced is…no where near ready to jump to the next level and I think he realizes this.

    Is this something that you think or that you hope? What would lead you to think that Ced believes that he needs another year(s) of college?

Leave a Reply