RPI and the ACC

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day86

Now that we’ve seen what the RPI rankings of Final Four teams look like, let’s look to see how various ACC coaches have done with respect to the RPI rankings and head-to-head comparisons.

Notes:

– For simplicity, I will only look at those coaches who have taken their team to the NCAA tournament at least twice during the last four years.
– Al Skinner and BC were included for informational purposes only. Meaningful comparisons will have to wait until BC has played an ACC schedule.
– Only years from current ACC coaches were included.
– The years that a team appeared in the NCAA tournament are noted in RED and BOLD.

Final RPI Ranking

 

2002

2003

2004

2005*

NC State

37

53

17

65

Duke

4

12

1

4

Georgia Tech

82

76

16

27

Maryland

2

37

18

57

North
Carolina

—

—

19

6

Wake Forest

24

7

20

7

Boston College

40

49

22

9

*New RPI formula implemented.

Interesting Trivia #1
In 2003 and 2005, NC State had the lowest RPI ranking of any team receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. This doesn’t prove that State was the last team in, but it sure is a strong suggestion.

Interesting Trivia #2
Much was made in the comments of a recent entry about State having to play a lot of ACC teams who were also top-10 teams…thus claiming that Herb’s miserable record versus the RPI Top-50 is skewed and misleading. However, the ACC only had two top-10 teams in 2002 and only one top-10 team in 2003 and 2004. This raises the question of what exactly is happening here…skewing statistics or scrambling for excuses?





Record vs RPI Top-50

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

Cumulative

Winning Percentage

NC State

3-7

2-8

7-7

4-8

0.348

Duke

11-2

4-2

10-4

7-2

0.762

Georgia Tech

3-11

2-6

8-7

2-7

0.326

Maryland

9-3

2-5

7-9

3-4

0.500

North
Carolina

—

—

7-7

6-3

0.565

Wake Forest

5-8

3-3

8-7

6-3

0.512

Boston College

4-7

1-5

6-6

6-3

0.447

Interesting Trivia #3
In Doherty’s last year, UNC went to the NIT with a 5-8 record (38% winning percentage) against the RPI Top 50. That same year, State went to the NCAA tournament with a 2-8 record (20% winning percentage) against the RPI Top-50.

Interesting Trivia #4
Herb has only exceeded Doherty’s 38% winning percentage against the RPI Top-50 (from 2003) one time.

Combined Regular Season and ACC Tourney Results

NC State’s Record vs:

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

Overall

Duke

0-3

1-2

1-1

0-2

2-8

Georgia Tech

1-1

1-1

2-0

2-0

6-2

Maryland

1-2

0-2

1-2

2-0

4-6

North
Carolina

—

—

0-2

0-2

0-4

Wake Forest

0-2

1-2

2-0

1-2

4-6

Boston College

—

0-1

0-1

—

0-2

Interesting Trivia #5
In Doherty’s last year, UNC was 6-10 in the ACC. In Roy Williams first year, UNC was 8-8 in the ACC, ie only two games better. However, Doherty was 0-2 against State in 2003 and Roy was 2-0 against State in 2004.

So What Does This Mean?
Where does Herb and NC State rank in the ACC over Herb’s best four years? I think that most rational people would rank Herb and State behind Duke, UNC (with Roy), Maryland, and Wake Forest. Much like Lee Fowler has forgotten Herb’s first five years, I am sure that very few people (other than certain State fans) make any attempt to recall Doherty’s last two years at Carolina.

You can argue about Sendek vs Hewitt (because of Georgia Tech’s run to the NCAA title game), but I would think that the head-to-head record and four straight trips to the NCAA tournament put Herb and State ahead of Georgia Tech. As mentioned previously, there is not enough data to make good comparisons with Boston College.

Attempts have been made to excuse or ignore State’s losses to teams rated in the RPI Top-10. However, I will go one better. What is Herb’s record vs the top four ACC coaches (by my evaluation) when State had the same or better ACC record? (Of course, this stipulation removes Duke from the comparison.)

Year

State’s Record

Opponent

Opponents

Record

State’s Record vs

Opponent

(includes ACCT)

2002

9-7

Wake Forest

9-7

0-2

2004

11-5

Wake Forest

9-7

2-0

2004

11-5

North
Carolina

8-8

0-2

2004

11-5

Maryland

7-9

1-2

2005

7-9

Maryland

7-9

2-0

 

 

 

Total:

5-6

Once again, Herb comes out on the short end.

I have recently pointed out many of the mistakes I see State fans make when analyzing or discussing NC State athletics. I have no interest in making those (or any) mistakes. I am not interested in compiling or skewing stats to justify some preconceived opinion or conclusion. I am simply listing facts and trends that I have seen over the last several years of the Great Herb Debate. If someone has some conflicting data, then by all means present it. However, I am not interested in doing some statistical study that someone else dreams up…so don’t waste your time suggesting that I do it.

I am sure that no one expects to change the past. However, I am constantly amazed that State fans can’t even agree on what the facts are.

Rhetorical Questions
Why does discussing Herb’s record constantly get labeled as being critical or negative? If his record is considered out-of-bounds, then what are we supposed to talk about….Seeds of Greatness?…or maybe the latest uttering from some 16 year old phenom?

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

86 Responses to RPI and the ACC

  1. VaWolf82 12/15/2005 at 8:27 AM #

    WHEN 25% OF NCSU’s TOP 50 OPPONENTS WERE TOP 5…AND THE OTHER TEAM MAY PLAY 5-10%…HOW CAN YOU REALLY GET AN ACCURATE PICTURE?

    When the comparisons are made within the ACC, then you get a perfect picture of where NC State fits within the ACC. When you look at RPI Rankings, Records vs Top-50, and Head-to-Head, they all give the exact same answer. Herb and State are stuck behind K, Roy, Gary, and Skippy. I think that this is an extremely accurate picture.

    It occurred to me that you may be reading more into the Records vs Top 50 than I intended. Herb’s record vs the Top-50 is terrible. However, that does not mean that I think that Herb is a terrible coach. No one with a triple-digit IQ thinks that Herb is a bad coach. There are two opens questions regarding Herb:

    – Is he “good enough” to be the coach at NC State?
    – What defines “good enough”?

    If we hadn’t finished in the final top 25 poll 3 of last 4 season, had relative post season success…I wouldn’t be here wasting my time.

    I consider the success level to be relatively low based on the NC State coaches that have preceeded Herb. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

    I think the program has only began it’s rise.

    And we finally get to the real crux of the matter. One’s hopes and dreams for the future are somehow rolled into an evaluation. This is another area where we differ.

  2. DRO 12/15/2005 at 10:00 AM #

    PACDADDY, as I stated earlier we should be comparing State to other ACC schools because THAT IS WHO THEY PLAY ON A CONSISTENT BASIS. Again I repeat, a majority (maybe all?) of those Top 5 games that State has been playing were against a combination of UNC, Duke, Wake, and Maryland, and a large chunk of the Top 25 games they played were also against ACC opponents. Therefore comparing the Pack’s schedule to AZ, Texas, and FL is ludicrous and serves no purpose. The other ACC schools could compare themselves to AZ, Texas, and FL and say they have played more Top 5/Top 25 teams as well, but OF COURSE THEY HAVE since those Top 5/Top 25 teams are in their conference. If you were to compare your house to others, would you compare it to someone’s shanty from a Third World Country? Of course not, you’d compare it to someone in your neighborhood. That is unless you always wanted your house to look the best. Therefore it is silly to compare State’s schedule to other schools who don’t play conference schedules as tough as the ACC. It is classic apples to oranges.

    What your comparison actually reveals is that State has played FEW games out of conference that were against quality opponents, since most of their Top 5/Top 25 games were conference games. Other schools cannot control whom they play in conference games, but they can strive to select better OOC games. State might want to look at that sometime…

  3. choppack 12/15/2005 at 10:27 AM #

    VaWolf – Thanks for the responses. Looks like we’re splitting hairs here a little. Hopefully, when the dust settles on this season, we’ll have a season that there can be some consensus was a very good one: solid ACC regular season, solid ACC tourney, solid NCAA tourney.

  4. VaWolf82 12/15/2005 at 11:08 PM #

    I simply pointed out that if our record verse top 25 teams is so deplorable, then so is Texas and especially Florida..how is that not a valid comparsion?

    Congratulations. You’ve found a statistic that Herb looks just as bad in as alot of other coaches. It’s a shame that you don’t have any that show that he is better than other good coaches.

    You once claimed that Herb would have great record against teams with RPI ratings from 11-50. By my count, State has a 3-3 record in the NCAA tourney against teams in the RPI 11-50. Do you consider this great?

    Using only Herb’s best four years, I concluded that he still ranked behind K, Roy, Gary, and Skippy. Do you agree or disagree with this assessment? If you agree, do you consider that acceptable? If you don’t agree, which of those four coaches do you rank below Herb and why?

  5. Class of '74 12/16/2005 at 8:22 AM #

    Herb has not yet posted any record that would label him as great. Now he may change that this year but as we speak there is nothing in his resume that you point to and say he is a “great” coach. His record is that of a average Division I coach at best.

  6. DRO 12/16/2005 at 8:55 AM #

    PACDADDY, you can compare NC State to Coppin State if you’d like, I don’t really care. The fact remains that State’s record and achievements pale in comparison to the likes of UNC, Duke, Wake, and Maryland since Herb has been at the helm. The consensus with other schools around the ACC is that State is not a real threat to do anything but win a few ACC tourney games and maybe one or two in the Big Dance. If mediocrity is what everyone wants for the program, then fine. I mean somebody’s got to be 5th in the league, right? I just doubt that most Wolfpack fans want State to be in that position.

    And as silly as it might sound, yes, I think State should schedule tougher OOC games, even if they play difficult conference schedules. Other ACC schools do that, so why is that a joke?

    Maybe this is the year for Herb, I don’t know. I can only base my beliefs on observations of facts, and so far the facts are that State is a middle of the pack team. And I’m sure someone will rant about why does everything have to ultimately come back to Herb not being the man for the job. But you know what? Herb makes a lot of money, more than me and more than most people that post here probably. Why is he paid this money? Is it to be a great guy and make the world a better place? Heck no. His #1 job, and don’t be so naive as to not believe this, is to make money for the University. He is an investment for NC State, and his returns are based on wins/losses, national prominence in basketball, tournaments, ticket sales, memorabilia sales, and alumni support. What happens when your investment has not returned very well over the last 9-10 years? I don’t think it takes a money manager to figure that one out.

  7. choppack 12/16/2005 at 9:16 AM #

    “Herb has not yet posted any record that would label him as great. Now he may change that this year but as we speak there is nothing in his resume that you point to and say he is a “greatâ€? coach. His record is that of a average Division I coach at best.”

    I think you’ve got a point here. I’d only add the caveat (if he gets us to the tourney w/out Hunter and Hodge) – he’s an average ACC coach. This conference has a tendency to spit up and chew out a lot of guys who were labeled as pretty hot coaches coming into the conference.

  8. Rick 12/16/2005 at 9:41 AM #

    A good coach (and Herb is a good coach) can be the biggest hinderance to being great.
    I would take the chance on being worse just to have hope that we will be better.
    Right now I do not have that hope.

  9. Jeff 12/17/2005 at 6:54 PM #

    We haven’t finished in the final Top 25 poll 3 of the last 4 seasons. And you claimed that LonChaney was providing false information.

    WHEN 25% OF NCSU’s TOP 50 OPPONENTS WERE TOP 5…AND THE OTHER TEAM MAY PLAY 5-10%…HOW CAN YOU REALLY GET AN ACCURATE PICTURE?

    Maybe by using WINNING PERCENTAGES to normalize performance, as anyone who has ever attended a high school math class would do.

    Gonzaga has a 36% winning percentage vs the Top 25 in the last four years.

    NC State has a 17.6% winning percentage vs the Top 25 under Herb Sendek.

  10. Jeff 12/18/2005 at 11:32 AM #

    DRO’s following comments should be the standard reply to whatever the next off-the-wall, micro-comparison is found as the next irrelevant “comparison” that is found for the next entry.

    You can compare NC State to Coppin State if you’d like, I don’t really care. The fact remains that State’s record and achievements pale in comparison to the likes of UNC, Duke, Wake, and Maryland since Herb has been at the helm. The consensus with other schools around the ACC is that State is not a real threat to do anything but win a few ACC tourney games and maybe one or two in the Big Dance. If mediocrity is what everyone wants for the program, then fine. I mean somebody’s got to be 5th in the league, right? I just doubt that most Wolfpack fans want State to be in that position.”

  11. DRO 12/18/2005 at 2:43 PM #

    Yeah, Texas is really stinking it up right now. It couldn’t happen to a better coach 🙂

    I’m not saying that Duke is not the clear favorite in the ACC, but the Texas-Tenn. game makes their blowout of the Longhorns seem a little less spectacular.

1 2 3 4

Leave a Reply