Finishing Strong

General NCS Basketball57

Among the many things that I see on NC State message boards after ugly “preseason” losses are statements like:

– State often lays a few eggs early in the year.
– State starts slow but always finishes the year strong.

So I decided to see if these statements are grounded in reality or wishful thinking:

BAD LOSSES
There are at least two ways to define a bad loss. For my purposes here, I have listed the losses to bad teams (the definition that I prefer) and also included those games where the final deficit was 10+ points.

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Losses to Teams Ranked in RPI 50+

2002

Sat
Dec 1

(107)
UMass
69, North Carolina St.
62

Wed
Feb 20

(82)
Georgia Tech 65, North Carolina
St. 59

2003

Thu
Jan 2

(209)
UMass
68, North Carolina St.
56

Sat
Jan 11

(76)
Georgia Tech 85, North Carolina
St. 61

Sun
Feb 9

(80)
Virginia
61, North Carolina St.
58

Sat
Feb 15

(88)
Temple 76,
w:st=”on”>North Carolina St.
54

2004

Tue
Dec 2

(55)
Michigan
68, North Carolina St.
61

Wed
Feb 18

(90)
Clemson 60, North Carolina St.
55

2005

Thu
Dec 30

(165)
St. John’s
63, North Carolina St.
45

Sun
Jan 9

(69)
Miami FL
67, North Carolina St.
66

Wed
Jan 19

(112)
Virginia Tech 72,
North Carolina St.
71

Wed
Jan 26

(135)
Florida St.
70, North Carolina St.
64

Sat
Feb 5

(80)
Virginia
64, North Carolina St.
62
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Losses by 10 Points or More

2002

Tue
Nov 27

(23) Ohio St. 64,
w:st=”on”>North Carolina St. 50

Sun
Jan 13

(4)
Duke 76, North Carolina St.
57

Sun
Feb 3

(2)
Maryland
89, North Carolina St.
73

Thu
Feb 14

(4)
Duke 108, North Carolina St.
71

Sat
Mar 2

(24)
Wake Forest 83,
w:st=”on”>North Carolina St. 71

Sun
Mar 10

(4)
Duke 91, North Carolina St.
61

2003

Thu
Jan 2

(209)
UMass
68, North Carolina St.
56

Sat
Jan 11

(76)
Georgia Tech 85, North Carolina
St. 61

Thu
Jan 16

(49)
Boston College 93,
w:st=”on”>North Carolina St. 81

Thu
Jan 30

(37)
Maryland
75, North Carolina St.
60

Thu
Feb 6

(7)
Wake Forest 73,
w:st=”on”>North Carolina St. 58

Sat
Feb 15

(88)
Temple 76,
w:st=”on”>North Carolina St.
54

Sat
Feb 22

(12)
Duke 79, North Carolina St.
68

2004

Thu
Jan 15

(1)
Duke 76, North Carolina St.
57

2005

Thu
Dec 30

(165)
St. John’s
63, North Carolina St.
45

Sun
Jan 2

(34)
West Virginia
82, North Carolina St.
69

Thu
Jan 13

(4)
Duke 86, North Carolina St.
74

Thu
Feb 3

(6)
North Carolina
95, North Carolina St.
71

Thu
Feb 10

(7)
Wake Forest 86,
w:st=”on”>North Carolina St. 75

Tue
Feb 22

(6)
North Carolina
81, North Carolina St.
71

Observations
1) The bad losses (by whichever definition you prefer) are spread throughout the season. There is no basis for claiming that the “eggs�? are only laid in the early part of the season. (This pretty much already proves that State doesn’t always finish strong.)

2) IMO, the Great Herb Debate (GHD) raged hotter during 2003 and 2005. While the GHD certainly existed in 2002 and 2004 (and even earlier), the unexpected wins in those two years cooled the flames somewhat. My purpose in mentioning the GHD was not to fuel the debate, but to point out that the loudest complaining appears directly tied to bad losses ….Imagine that!

3) Over this four year stretch, the most losses to bad teams (both RPI 50+ and RPI 100+) occurred in 2005. Yet another inconvenient fact that flies in the face of those who love to cry about steady improvement.

4) I am not really interested in debating the margin of victory/defeat statistics. This number can be misleading in too many cases. I was just curious to know what the data would look like, so I included the table here for anyone who is interested.

FINISHING STRONG
I have compiled the results thru the last 10 games of the regular season, thru the ACC tourney, and thru any post-season tourney that State played in. If State usually finishes strong, then there should be some evidence of this trend in the won/loss records.

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Record Over The Last 10 Games Thru

Year

Reg Season

ACCT

NCAAT

NIT

1997

5-5

7-3

—

7-3

1998

4-6

4-6

—

5-5

1999

5-5

5-5

—

4-6

2000

3-7

2-8

—

5-5

2001

3-7

3-7

—

—

2002

5-5

6-4

5-5

—

2003

4-6

5-5

5-5

—

2004

7-3

6-4

5-5

—

2005

5-5

6-4

6-4

—

Years with Significant Trends

1997
Herb’s first year looked a lot like the Les years until just before the end of the regular season. After winning 4 of 5 to end the regular season, State beat Georgia Tech, Duke, and Maryland in the ACC tournament before falling to Carolina in the Finals. I think that this stretch of basketball is arguably Herb’s finest at State. I can’t think of another example where a coach has done more with less.

2000
At the half-way point of the ACC season, State was sitting pretty at 15-4 overall and 5-3 in the conference. History suggested that three more ACC wins would secure State a position in the NCAA tourney for the first time since Les’s first year. State then proceeded to go on a seven-game conference losing streak to limp into the NIT once again.

Three wins in the NIT did little to ease the disappointment of the losing streak and missing the NCAA tourney. IMO (humble but accurate), the seeds of the GHD were sown during this losing streak. Those seeds blossomed ugly and loud during the disaster that was the 2001 season when State didn’t even qualify for the NIT.

2004
A five-game winning streak in February was topped off with a win against Duke. The streak stopped several days later at Clemson of all places. Starting with the Clemson loss, State played .500 ball for the remainder of the year. The ACC tourney ended with a record-breaking collapse against Maryland and the NCAA tourney ended even more abruptly against Vanderbilt.

2005
After a 3-9 stretch of horrible basketball that stretched out over six weeks, State’s chances of making the NCAA tourney were grim (to say the least). Then a really bizarre trend began. Starting with a nail-biting win against Georgia Tech, State ended the year by winning two games and then losing one…and then repeating this pattern three more times. While the records over the last 10 games don’t really show a hot streak, State did finish the year strong by winning 8 of the last 12 games.

CONCLUSION
I think that the myth of finishing strong started when State upset the #1 seed in the ACC tourney two years in a row (2002 & 2003). However it takes a lot more than just two big victories in two years to actually qualify as consistently finishing strong. (Just as a side note, those two ACCT wins were two of the four wins against teams that made the NCAA tourney during the 2002 and 2003 seasons.) So, let’s put an end to the myth of finishing strong. It sure is nice when it happens, but it hasn’t happened often enough to start depending on it…or talking about it incessantly.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball

57 Responses to Finishing Strong

  1. Class of '74 12/20/2005 at 12:01 PM #

    I’m sorry you did say more than twice for the finals but my question is: is there a banner for this?
    I diminish his “accomplishments” because they are paltry and few in comparison to the standards of my school and it’s once proud history. I do not call 2nd place a notable accomplishment nor have I before today known anyone who does!

  2. Class of '74 12/20/2005 at 12:19 PM #

    As to school loyalty, if I didn’t care I wouldn’t be as critical as I am. I know we can do better and I just wonder why we have not. It is Mr. Fowler’s job to set the goals and see to it they are met.

  3. VaWolf82 12/20/2005 at 1:48 PM #

    but minimizing the accomplishments of the coach of the program you’re suppose to support is down right foolish.

    First of all, comparing Herb’s accomplishments to every other man to coach at NC State is called perspective. If Herb’s accomplishments are less, then they are less (and they are). Just because you don’t like the truth or the comparisons doesn’t change them or their validity.

    SImply by making a Superbowl is an accomplishment. ANd it’s competing at highest level.

    You are correct on both counts. However, the value of that accomplishment is very, very minor compared to actually winning.

    You are free to define success any way you want. Just don’t be surprised when people with a little perspective call them what they are….moral victories made up because Herb has not delivered enough real ones.

    Ever heard of the Les Robinson invitational? Or did you forget about that?

    Herb is not the only coach to start with a program at the bottom of the ACC. He has done better than some coaches….but he is certainly well behind what GW has done at MD and what Odom did at WF.

    How long does it have to be before you quit bringing up the sad excuse of blaming Herb’s current problems on decisions Monteith made? Most people have already dismissed Herb’s first five years and are only discussing the last four. I would think that five years should be a big enough grace period.

  4. packbackers 12/20/2005 at 10:48 PM #

    When will we ever stop living in the past?

  5. PACDADDY 12/21/2005 at 1:38 AM #

    “perspective”…come on VA. I just said Herb has been to the final game in a seven year span(should have been 4 in 8)…that’s more than 5 teams did in 20…forget about who won the thing for a second. The point is just making the game deserves some recognition, at least by our own fans. That is perspective and that is finishing strong.

    Put it this way…

    Clemson has made the NCAA seven times in 40 years…3 out of those 7 they made the “sweet sixteen”…they’ve played in the ACC tourney 40 times…0 championship games. NOTE:..almost 50% of the time Clemson played in NCAA they made the “Sweet sixteen”.

    UVA has been to the NCAA 15 times in the last 40 years…7 times they made the Sweet Sixteen or better. They made the ACC final 6 times(won 1 time) during the same period…out of 40! Almost 50% of the time they made the “sweet sixteen”.

    Wake Forest made the NCAA 16 times in 40 years…6 times they made the sweet 16 or better…3 times they played in ACC final in 40 years! That’s 37% for Sweet Sixteen’s.

    FSU has played in 3 NCAA’s finishing in “Sweet sixteen”(or better) twice…They haven’t sniffed the ACC final.

    Maryland has been to NCAA 20 times the last 40 years…12 times they have gone to “Sweet Sixteen” or better…8 times they made ACC final…winning 2…heck…had refs not given GW game 2 years ago against us, Maryland would have won an equal number of ACC/NCAA championships.

    Keep in mind…this is the last 40 years, so many of the early years every team played in ACC tourney, but didn’t have the opportunity to add to there totals for NCAA.

  6. Class of '74 12/21/2005 at 8:01 AM #

    “past” – When something great happens that is equal to or greater than our past that’s when! Maybe this will be the year in basketball we’ll see.

  7. VaWolf82 12/21/2005 at 8:40 AM #

    “perspectiveâ€?…come on VA. I just said Herb has been to the final game in a seven year span…The point is just making the game deserves some recognition, at least by our own fans. That is perspective and that is finishing strong.

    I think that there is definitely a portion of NC State fans that give this alot of credit….more than I think that it is worth. It comes across to me as just one of the new ways people are using to define success…since State is not achieving much by the old definitions.

    Setting the importance of reaching the title game aside, I disagree that making the final game of the ACCT in ’02 and ’03 constitutes finishing strong. State was the fourth seed both years with a 9-7 conference record.

    In ’02, the #5 seed was UVa, with a 7-9 conference record. State beat them twice in the regular season and thumped them again in the ACCT. Next State upset the #1 seed (MD)…which was a great win. Then State got thumped in the finals by Duke.

    In ’03, the #5 seed was GT with a 7-9 conference record and the two teams split the regular season games. Once again State upsets the #1 seed (WF) which is another big win. Then State loses to Duke in the finals.

    So both years, State won one game that they were supposed to win, then had one big upset followed by a loss. To me, that does not constitute finishing strong. That conclusion in no way reduces the importance of upsetting the #1 seed, but “finishing strong” has to be more than just the two-game stretches in the ACCT.

  8. VaWolf82 12/21/2005 at 10:16 AM #

    Here are the last 10 games of the year, heading into the NCAAT. Over these 20 games (from 2 years), there is grand total of 2 victories over teams that made the NCAAT. I repeat….this does not constitute a strong finish heading into the NCAAT

    2002
    North Carolina St. 85, (49) Virginia 68
    North Carolina St. 76, (122) Florida St. 67
    (4) Duke 108, North Carolina St. 71
    North Carolina St. 83, (149) Clemson 54
    (82) Georgia Tech 65, North Carolina St. 59
    North Carolina St. 98, (118) North Carolina 76
    (24) Wake Forest 83, North Carolina St. 71
    ACCT
    North Carolina St. 92, (49) Virginia 72
    North Carolina St. 86, (2) Maryland 82
    (4) Duke 91, North Carolina St. 61

    2003
    (88) Temple 76, North Carolina St. 54
    North Carolina St. 71, (81) Florida St. 60
    (12) Duke 79, North Carolina St. 68
    North Carolina St. 75, (52) North Carolina 67 (OT)
    (37) Maryland 68, North Carolina St. 65
    North Carolina St. 63, (107) Clemson 60
    (7) Wake Forest 78, North Carolina St. 72
    ACCT
    North Carolina St. 71, (76) Georgia Tech 65
    North Carolina St. 87, (7) Wake Forest 83
    (12) Duke 84, North Carolina St. 77

  9. Rick 12/21/2005 at 10:59 AM #

    “but minimizing the accomplishments of the coach of the program you’re suppose to support is down right foolish.”

    The question is who, besides the Herb supporters, would continually refer to 3nd place finishes as an “accomplishment”?
    When Herb lost his first ACC title game, I did refer to that as an accomplishment because it was. But once you get into the 10th year of your coaching tenure, second place is no longer something to laud. It is simply a failure. 2nd place finishes can be considered a stepping stone early in a carreer, but let’s have some persepctive here, it is way past time to celebrate “almost”.
    Do Duke, UNC, or UMD celebrate second places? If we ever win a championship will we stil refer to the second place finishes? No because they are irrelevant.

  10. Rick 12/21/2005 at 11:43 AM #

    I meant 2nd place ^

  11. Class of '74 12/21/2005 at 1:04 PM #

    I think most of the fans who consider 2nd place an accomplishment are ones who don’t have a perspective beyond the 1990’s. Certainly anyone from the pre-Monteith era knows what constitutes a quality season in basketball.

  12. PACDADDY 12/22/2005 at 12:02 AM #

    ’74…I grew up watching DT practice in Reynolds. I went to State during ’83. I threw my black and white TV across the room when Clyde threw that ball to D Bradley. Believe me…I know my BB history.

    The “perspective” is quite simple to understand…if the FREQUENCY OF making the “final game”, can be proven to be difficult to achieve by a large sample, making the “final game” is an “accomplishment”.

    NOW…the topic of this entry was “finishing strong”. I think the point was made quite clearly. I still content had Scooter played 2 seasons ago(or the refs not given GW a gift or 2), Herb would have played in three straight ACC finals.

    That’s a remarkable achievement if you look at most any team in the ACC…outside of Duke and UNC. Now we just have to finish!

  13. PACDADDY 12/22/2005 at 12:15 AM #

    ^actually…Dudley Bradley stole the ball from Clyde.

  14. Class of '74 12/22/2005 at 6:41 AM #

    If’s and butts candy and nuts. The facts are clearly not there yet for our present regime but this could be the year only tme will tell. But no banners equals no accomplishments! Has Herb dug himself out of the hole created by Monteith- Not Yet! Will he? We only have a recent history of almosts to go on at this time.

    If you do know your history then you know Herb trails: Case, Sloan and V. I too know my history having seen all of them first hand.

  15. VaWolf82 12/22/2005 at 10:36 AM #

    Not that it matters, but I was at the Dudley Bradley game, on the side line down at the end where Bradley finished the steal with a dunk.

    So if I add your newly defined “accomplishment”, then you’ll be happy?

    Norm Sloan
    1 National Championship
    2 Reg Season Championships
    Three-time ACC COY (70,73,74)
    5 appearances in ACCT championship game
    3 ACCT Championships
    The only back-to-back undefeated conference records in ACC history

    Jim Valvano
    1 National Championship
    2 Elite 8’s & 1 Sweet 16
    2 appearances in ACCT championship game
    2 ACCT Championships
    1 Reg Season Championship
    1989 ACC COY

    Herb Sendek
    3 appearances in ACCT championship game
    1 Sweet 16

    V made his reputation with strong finishes. Last year was a strong finish for Herb and State. Maybe Herb can continue to finish strong and build a list of nationally significant accomplishments. He hasn’t so far, but this is a new season.

    Editied V’s NCAAT record.

  16. Rick 12/22/2005 at 2:07 PM #

    “2 appearances in ACCT championship game
    2 ACCT Championships”

    Maybe that is why just getting to the game is not considered an accomplishment. Getting there and consistently choking is not exactly something to crow about.

    VaWolf,
    Your lists of accomplishments certainly highlights how far our program has dropped.

  17. Class of '74 12/22/2005 at 2:32 PM #

    When you strip away the emotions people have, and look at only the numbers, it is easy to see why so many wolfpackers long for the days of Case, Sloan and Valvano. Each of these legends had no less than an ACCT banner hung by their fourth year in Raleigh.

  18. PACDADDY 12/22/2005 at 5:43 PM #

    In fairness VA…Herb was coach of the year 2 seasons ago. You make it sound like V was in the “sweet sixteen” or better 6 times in your post. It was only four times total including NC. I would hope that anyone could read your rundown, and understand that to make it to final 8 you must have made Sweet Sixteen, but the way you broke it down is misleading. I realize to make it to the final 8 was quite nice in ’86, but we did it with Washburn…Is that something to be proud of? In ’87 we won the ACC tournament..yes we finished strong that season, after finishing 6th in the regular season. Shackleford made us proud!

  19. VaWolf82 12/22/2005 at 9:00 PM #

    In fairness VA…Herb was coach of the year 2 seasons ago.

    I did not remember this. I’ll have to look around and see if someone is keeping track of stuff like this.

    Charlie Board’s site has not been updated since 2003 (upset with conference expansion). This is the site I used to determine ACCT championship appearances for Sloan.

    You make it sound like V was in the “sweet sixteen� or better 6 times in your post. It was only four times total including NC.

    I realized later that I jumbled the numbers together. It has been corrected.

    I realize to make it to the final 8 was quite nice in ‘86, but we did it with Washburn…Is that something to be proud of?

    Yes. I’m surprised that anyone that uses speculation (see below) to bolster Herb’s record would try to erase past victories from another coach:

    I still content had Scooter played 2 seasons ago(or the refs not given GW a gift or 2), Herb would have played in three straight ACC finals

  20. PACDADDY 12/22/2005 at 9:15 PM #

    Trying to erase past victories? Now that’s a reach. I simply asked a question…does it make you proud of the fact we had a person like Washburn on our team?

    “Perspective” can enlighten one in so many ways.

    The speculation I refered to is just that…speculation…you’re right…but something tells me, had we not had the best defender on our team on the bench, Gilchrist may not have scored 35pts. Just a guess.

  21. VaWolf82 12/22/2005 at 11:07 PM #

    I realize to make it to the final 8 was quite nice in ‘86, but we did it with Washburn…Is that something to be proud of?

    I simply asked a question…does it make you proud of the fact we had a person like Washburn on our team?

    It looks to me that your explanation doesn’t match your original question. However, the fact that Washburn played for State bothers me not at all. There were alot of players in college BB back then, that should have never been admitted to any college.

    but something tells me, had we not had the best defender on our team on the bench, Gilchrist may not have scored 35pts. Just a guess.

    You are going to have to redo the records books for me. You are attaching so many excuses and asterisks to State’s losses, that I can’t keep them all straight.

  22. PACDADDY 12/22/2005 at 11:33 PM #

    VA…Washburn was an embarassment to NCSU…was before he even came to campus. So it doesn’t bother you that Washburn is part of our proud history of the 80’s. Win at all cost VA?

    I realize “other” programs like Cinci, or UNLV, or Louisville, or OSU…would take him in a heart beat. Should he been at NCSU? I don’t think so.

    My point is you and others are comparing apples and oranges when looking at the Herb’s program and V’s. This is the definition of “perspective”. V had so many questionable characters on campus, they ran off most of the goods kids. Kennedy…Lambiotte. W/L records isn’t what should matter in the grand design of things. V was turning it around, but way too late.

    “You are going to have to redo the records books for me. You are attaching so many excuses and asterisks to State’s losses, that I can’t keep them all straight.”

    You know…it’s part of sports. I simply pointed out that had we hung on to that game Herb would have been to an amazing 50% of the ACC finals he’s participated in. Banners or no banners…that is significant.

    Oh…and the refs didn’t help any. I mean…when’s the last time a team gets a tech for the towel biy? 😉

  23. VaWolf82 12/23/2005 at 8:47 AM #

    Win at all cost VA?

    I realize “other� programs like Cinci, or UNLV, or Louisville, or OSU…would take him in a heart beat. Should he been at NCSU? I don’t think so.

    You are conveniently forgetting about the offers from Duke and a bunch of other schools aren’t you? While at the same time putting words into my mouth. Your attempts to drag V down to make Herb look better are laughable (among other things). They are no more convincing than your never-ending excuses for Herb’s losses.

    W/L records isn’t what should matter in the grand design of things.

    The ESA wasn’t built to watch intramural contests. If you are going to climb up into the Ivory Tower with Myles Brand, don’t get confused when no one takes you seriously.

  24. Class of '74 12/23/2005 at 4:53 PM #

    Pacdaddy just remember Mr. Washburn was also recruited by none other than Dean Smith. Yeah that’s right the one who was in Chapel Hill for 35+ years!
    How he got in school is a question best posed to the admissions officer.

  25. PACDADDY 12/23/2005 at 9:34 PM #

    I’m not certain of the words I was putting into your mouth…you may need to help me out on that one.

    Do you realize V had the opportunity to recruit ANY KIND of player he wanted at NCSU…there were NO STANDARDS set for him(obviously). I’m not blaming V…I’m blaming the “win at all cost” mentallity from Poulton and certain boosters.

    My only point is you cannot compare these two programs. I could go on and on about problems we had in the 80’s…I was there!

    I’m not trashing V. He was hell of a coach and a wonderful man…he was doing what he was hired to do. Herb is doing the same thing, but the admin’s standards are quite different…AND YOU KNOW IT…SO QUIT COMPARING THEM! Their “RECORDS” are meaningless to compare.

    Washburn was never offered by Dean or Duke…that’s BS. I do know he was recruited by Dean and probably Duke early in the process, but he wasn’t offered…or if he was, it was pulled.

    “V down to make Herb look better are laughable (among other things).”…what are you refering to here VA..”laughable”. Your attempt at showing NCSU and Herb in a bad light is “laughable”. You only deal in FACTS…

    Well…I showed you how we’ve “finished strong” in the last 4 seasons.

    2002…ACC Final
    2003…ACC final
    2004…7-3 last 10 regular season..lost to Maryland(when have you ever seen a technical given to the bench for cleaning up a water spot?…The ref admitted he made a mistake)
    2005…Sweet Sixteen

    Now…what is “laughable” about the truth?

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