2013 CWS Preview (of sorts)

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Things I’m tired of hearing about….

No CWS Championship in the ACC since Wake’s in ’55.

First time in Omaha for NC State since ’68 (AKA the 45 year drought).

And now, Caulton Tudor unleashes his brilliance onto the scene with this inspired piece.  If you haven’t checked out the mass responses from Wolfpack Nation, then be sure to go here and check them out before reading further.

My opinion?

NC State is in Omaha.  NC State has a chance to win a national championship in baseball.  I no longer care how long it’s been since the last time we’ve been there.  We’re there now, and we better damn well make the most of it rather than just being happy to be there.

Nor do I give a rat’s ass how long it’s been since the CONFERENCE won a CWS title.  We’re not there for the ACC, we’re there for NC State.

And I sure as hell WILL NOT be pulling for U*NC-CH at any point during this shindig.  Sorry Caulton, but it seems you need to know your audience a little better.  Hell, even Heather Dinich would know better than to unleash that kind of stupidity on the public.

With that out of the way, let’s actually look at who we have to beat in order to win this thing.

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Disclaimer: This will not be a statistically exhaustive preview like most others have been this season.  That’s probably good news for most of you I’d guess.  The ones who care for such things likely don’t need it anyway.  So, everybody’s happy.  Plus I don’t have to sit here and spend 3+ nights sorting thru numbers nobody’s gonna read anyway, so win-win.

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Good Omens for the Pack

In 2013 State is 43-3 when opponents score five or fewer runs.

Of the teams left standing, the Pack’s post-season ERA (1.53) is tops, and they’ve allowed only an average of 2 runs per game (t1st, UCLA).

The Pack’s staff is also tops in post-season Ks (49), and tied for the lead in fewest walks allowed (10).

Now, if we can just hit the dang ball.

Also, I can’t help but to wonder what the over/under is on the number of innings it takes to decide Sunday’s game between the Heels and the Pack?

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The Competition – Our Bracket (Play begins Sunday)

UNCLogoNorth Carolina Tar Heels (57-10*)

How they got here: ACC Champs*, Overall #1 seed, Won Chapel Hill Regional, Defeated SCar 2 games to 1 in Chapel Hill Super Regional.

Previous CWS Appearances: 9*

You know ’em, you love ’em.  They’ve got pitching, hitting, and up until recently…defense.  Frankly, for the number one overall seed they’re damn lucky to have made it this far and if they keep playing the way they have of late they’re ripe for the picking, IMHO.  If you need/want to know more details then go here.

North Carolina Baseball Home (GoHeels.com)

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21348681_BG1LSU Tigers (57-9)

How they got here: SEC Champs, Overall #4 seed, Won Baton Rouge Regional, Defeated Oklahoma 2 games to none Baton Rouge Super Regional.

Previous CWS Appearances: 15, including titles in ’91, ’93, ’96, ’97, ’00 and ’09.

Probably playing the best ball of any club in the country leading up to Omaha.  Took Vandy out in the SEC tourney and haven’t lost since.  With a little luck, the Pack can avoid facing Aaron Nola (12-0, 1.68 ERA), but their pitching doesn’t get much easier to face after that so it probably makes no difference.  Their staff carries a 2.41 ERA, a .217 against avg, and give up only 2.86 runs per game.

The Tigers bat .308 as a team, have hit 46 HRs on the season, and score an avg of 6.6 runs per game.

When you can average scoring nearly four more runs per game than you give up, you tend to win.  A lot.

They do.

They’re also and outstanding defensive team (.980 fldpct).

LSU Baseball Home (LSUSports.com)

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UCLA_Bruins_LogoUCLA Bruins (44-17)

How they got here: Won Los Angeles Regional, Defeated #5 overall seed CS Fullerton 2 games to none to win Fullerton Super Regional.

Previous CWS Appearances: 4

Playing very good ball right now.  You don’t go into Fullerton and take two straight from the Titans if you’re not.

Very good pitching staff with a team ERA of 2.69 and a .226 against avg.  Only given up 18 HRs on the season and are yielding only 3.15 runs per game.

Not the strongest hitters on the planet with a team BA of .251 on the season and only 19 HRs.  Only score an avg of 4.8 runs per game, but they manage to win a lot of low scoring games.

Like LSU, they do not hurt themselves very often with mistakes in the field (.980 fldpct)

UCLA Baseball Home (UCLABruins.com)

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The Competition – Opposite Bracket (Play begins Saturday)

Oregon State LogoOregon State Beavers (50-11)

How they got here: PAC12 Champs, Overall #3 seed, Won Corvallis Regional, Defeated K State 2 games to 1 to win Corvallis Super Regional.

Previous CWS Appearances: 4, including titles in ’06 and ’07.

An opening blip loss to K State in the Super Regional round notwithstanding, probably still one of the three favorites (Along with LSU and Carolina) to take the title.  An amazing pitching staff (Team ERA 2.22, .213 against avg, only 16 HRs given up on the season, giving up only 3.0 runs per game) which will be tough to beat in a best of three series with Boyd (10-3, 2.13), Moore (14-1, 1.36) and Wetzler (9-1, 2.11).  Their pen ain’t chopped liver either.

They bat .291 as a team with 30 HRs on the season, and average scoring 5.82 runs per game.

Good enough defensively with a .972 fldpct.

Oregon State Baseball Home (OSUBeavers.com)

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58742Mississippi State Bulldogs (48-18)

How they got here: Won Starkville Regional, Swept #6 overall seed UVa two straight to win Charlotteville Regional.

Previous CWS Appearances: 8

Overall a very good pitching staff, but with an excellent bullpen.  Team ERA 2.77, 21 HRs given up on the year and yielding an avg of 3.56 runs per game.

Good hitting club with a team BA of .297, 29 HRs, and scoring an avg. of 6.05 runs per game.

Solid but not spectacular on defense (.972 fldpct)

Mississippi State Baseball Home (HailState.com)

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Louisville_scipt_L_logoLouisville Cardinals (51-12)

How they got here: Won Louisville Regional, Defeated #2 overall seed Vanderbilt two straight to win Nashville regional.

Previous CWS Appearances: 1

Very good pitching (Team ERA 2.50, .212 against avg, 22 HRs, 3.16 runs given up per game).  Good balance between starters and bullpen with two very strong starters in Chad Green (10-3, 2.29) and Jeff Thompson (11-1, 2.00).

Cards bat .291 as a team with 29 HRs on the season and score an avg. of 6.35 runs per game (more than twice as many as they give up).

A team fldpct of .971.

Louisville Baseball Home (GoCards.com)

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58725Indiana Hoosiers (48-14)

How they got here: B1G Champs, Won Bloomington Regional, Swept overall #7 seed FSU to take Tallahassee Super Regional.

Previous CWS Appearances: 0

Like the Pack, Indiana was in the conversation for that last national seed but were ultimately passed over.  Frankly, if I had to pick a dark horse it would be the Hoosiers.  They’re built for the tournament format with four different guys who can start and shut the opposition down, and a more than capable pen.  Their team ERA for the year is 2.67, their against avg is .249, they’ve given up but 18 HRs on the season, and they yield only 3.45 runs per game.

As a team they bat .305, have jacked 53 round trippers, and score 6.90 runs per game.

They can be sometimes suspect in the field (.965 fldpct)

In short, if they can get enough pitching, not hurt themselves in the field and find a way to hit CWS caliber competition as they have the B1G this year (somewhat of a big if, but time will tell), then Indiana’s first trip to Omaha could be a good one for them.

Indiana Baseball Home (IUHoosiers.com)

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Links

NCSU Baseball – CWS Tournament Central (GoPack.com)

PACKin’ For Omaha (GoPack.com)

Interactive Bracket (NCAA.com)

Printable Bracket (NCAA.com)

2013 NCAA Tourney Team Stats (NCAA.com)

College World Series Fan Guide (NCAA.com)

TD Ameritrade Park Info (TDAmeritradeParkOmaha.com)

College World Series of Omaha Home Page (CWSOmaha.com)

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CWS Schedule – TV Info

Saturday, June 15

  • Game 1: Mississippi State (48-18) vs. No. 3 Oregon State (50-11) (ESPN2, 3 p.m.)
  • Game 2: Indiana (48-14) vs. Louisville (51-12) (ESPN, 8 p.m.)

Sunday, June 16

  • Game 3: NC State (49-14) vs. No. 1 U*NC-CH (56-10*) (ESPN2, 3 p.m.)
  • Game 4: UCLA (44-17) vs. No. 4 LSU (57-9) (ESPN2, 8 p.m.)

Monday, June 17

  • Game 5: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser (ESPN2, 3 p.m.)
  • Game 6: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner (ESPN2, 8 p.m.)

Tuesday, June 18

  • Game 7: Game 3 loser vs. Game 4 loser (ESPN, 3 p.m.)
  • Game 8: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.)

Wednesday, June 19

  • Game 9: Game 6 loser vs. Game 5 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.)

Thursday, June 20

  • Game 10: Game 8 loser vs. Game 7 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.)

Friday, June 21

  • Game 11: Game 6 winner vs. Game 9 winner (ESPN, 3 p.m.)
  • Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. Game 10 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.)

Saturday, June 22

  • Game 13: Game 6 winner vs. Game 9 winner (ESPN, 3 p.m.) (if Game 9 winner wins Game 11)
  • Game 14: Game 8 winner vs. Game 10 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.) (if Game 10 winner wins Game 12)

Monday, June 24

  • Finals Game 1: Bracket 1 winner vs. Bracket 2 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.)

Tuesday, June 25

  • Finals Game 2: Bracket 1 winner vs. Bracket 2 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.)

Wednesday, June 26

  • Finals Game 3: Bracket 1 winner vs. Bracket 2 winner (ESPN, 8 p.m.) (if necessary)

*All games also on ESPN3/WatchESPN

 

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Go Pack!!!!

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About Wufpacker

A 2nd generation alumnus and raised since birth to be irrationally dedicated to all things NC State. Class of '88 and '92.

Baseball

24 Responses to 2013 CWS Preview (of sorts)

  1. TheCOWDOG 06/13/2013 at 4:38 PM #

    Hey…Red Barber returns.

    This is one of the most parity oozing CWS I can remember. The best thing the NCAA did was lower the tone on the bats. I think that in doing so, this thing truly is an anyone can win party. GAWolf may still disagree, but the boy knows the game, and is forgiven. 🙂

  2. Wufpacker 06/13/2013 at 5:01 PM #

    “The best thing the NCAA did was lower the tone on the bats. I think that in doing so, this thing truly is an anyone can win party.”

    That’s an excellent point ‘Dog. And I didn’t go into the whole TD Ameritrade Park angle, but I probably should have.

    For the uninformed, it favors teams like ours.

    And when and where did ya piss GA off? I missed that one.

  3. Wufpacker 06/13/2013 at 5:17 PM #

    Almost forgot…

    I damn sure hope you aren’t likening my drivel to that of the ol’ red head. Not only could you lose your card for that, but you might have a red headed ghost come a visiting in your future to let you know what’s what.

    The man was a legend and doesn’t need to be likened to a hack such as myself (not that anyone needs THAT).

  4. TheCOWDOG 06/13/2013 at 5:23 PM #

    Oh…I can’t piss GA off, he’s too sharp. GA likes PING!!! and taters. Even when they came off the fist, or the end of the bat.

  5. StateMan 06/13/2013 at 5:33 PM #

    Alright, Alright, Let’s see what we got….

  6. TheCOWDOG 06/13/2013 at 7:03 PM #

    Pardon the interruption…we just had a Wake County derecho moment.

    Wuf, you ain’t no Red, but you’re the best we got…so live with it. See, I didn’t really think about the spaciousness of the new yard, excellent point, as well.

    The Pack does not have the instant long ball threat, that is a fact. However, they are an excellent station to station club. Which,BTW, should not be confused with Sac bunting before the fifth.

  7. Whiteshoes67 06/13/2013 at 7:36 PM #

    ^Dem’s strong words, Dog. My regular season attendance this year wasn’t near what’s its been the last few years, but from what I’ve seen, I wouldn’t call them “excellent” station to station. It’s almost an oxymoron to pair Avent with station to station. They’ve benefitted from being able to run a lot this year. Second to Louisville, they’ll have the most SB’s out there. But in the postseason, the running threat hasn’t been as evident.

    You get 1st and 2nd, nobody out, and you’re down 2 runs late in the game, you better put it on the ground when you’ve got 18-19 year old kids. These aren’t professional hitters. Avent’s inconsistent application of small ball drives me nuts. Fine to play hunches every once in a while…but I haven’t quite figured out his recipe

  8. NCSU88 06/13/2013 at 8:08 PM #

    Thanks for the analysis Wuf; Good stuff. I heard the TV announcers discussing the bats, how they have affected offensive production and that the solution is changing the ball. I thought that the bats were changed because they were too dangerous. There did not seem to be any lack of offensive production, either. Thoughts?

  9. BJD95 06/13/2013 at 8:12 PM #

    I would like to see more consistency in approach, too – but you base it on math, not “the book.”

    Which means where you are in the order, who’s pitching, and who’s on base are all very important. To make the correct odds play, anyway.

  10. Pack1998 06/13/2013 at 9:04 PM #

    Lotta balance in this field.

    We gotta get production from lower lineup to win.

    Personally, fan of the dead bats . . .

  11. Whiteshoes67 06/13/2013 at 9:15 PM #

    ^The book is based on the math. It dictates the correct play, tempered, of course, by situation and personnel. When you play small ball, you have to either move runners with the bunt, steal, or hit and run. When you’re down, aren’t an especially great hitting club, this all the more important. Unproductive outs–(popouts, strikeouts, fly outs) –absolutely kill you. That’s why we’ve left as many on base as we have in postseason play.
    Imo, Avent relies too much on hunches. He doesn’t play the odds properly at the plate. So, to be clear, I agree with CD and think we’re a very good station to station team. I don’t think we’re excellent because Avent tends to abandon that approach on whims and hunches when we’re not a very good hitting club top to bottom.

  12. Whiteshoes67 06/13/2013 at 9:17 PM #

    But don’t confuse my complaining with pessimism. I think we’re set up to do well, especially if Jernigan, Stone, Ogburn can give us quality innings.

  13. Gowolves 06/13/2013 at 9:34 PM #

    The last game we saw the bats come alive. They got a lot of bad luck to go with questionable manger decisions. They had twelve hits through six I think. The bad luck was they hit into at least four line drive double plays. Hard hits that just missed the holes. I think if they continue that things will start going their way.

  14. wolffpride 06/13/2013 at 9:42 PM #

    Didn’t Carolina win the CWS a few years ago (within the past 5)?

  15. wolffpride 06/13/2013 at 9:45 PM #

    Oh wait a minute, they made it to the championship game twice and lost both times (to Oregon State I believe). That’s just not the Carolina Way!

  16. Primewolf 06/14/2013 at 6:51 AM #

    Thanks Wufpacker,

    Great video of pack leaving for Omaha, arriving in the city, and eating some huge steaks in Omaha over at GoPack.

    Brings a tear to my eye to watch it. Really puts their accomplishments into perspective —–> only 8 teams standing at this point.

  17. Whiteshoes67 06/14/2013 at 11:07 AM #

    Here’s the Baseball America preview and breakdown, with a link to some good comments by opposing coaches.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-world-series-preview/?SPID=108097&DB_OEM_ID=3350

  18. blpack 06/14/2013 at 11:49 AM #

    I really like our chances. Take care of business in game 1 and then see what happens against a great LSU team. They are the team to beat, imho, but anyone can take it.

  19. MP 06/14/2013 at 1:01 PM #

    It looks like baseballamerica.com gives us a puncher’s chance. It looks like Vegas has us around 12:1.

    Seems like it’s all about Game #1. Beat ‘the asterisk’ and the odds will improve substantially, Vegas or otherwise. Lose, we’re probably toast… since we don’t have the overall hitting depth.

  20. Wufpacker 06/14/2013 at 1:28 PM #

    Coming out of any loser’s bracket is a tall order, in this field it’s tantamount to cement shoes.

    But take Sunday’s game vs Carolina, avoid LSU’s Nola and yeah, puncher’s chance is about right.

    LSU’s other pitchers are good, as are UCLA’s, but our game is predicated upon getting guys on base. Nola is the kinda guy that could easily uncork a no hitter on a big stage, and we don’t need to be messing with that crap 😀

  21. Whiteshoes67 06/14/2013 at 2:22 PM #

    ^Initially, I thought it was a nobrainer that we’d see a Rodon v. Emanuel matchup, and we probably still will, but Fox may just run somebody else out there. Rodon is just such a tough matchup for their lineup with all the lefties. Rodon already beat them once and threw a one-hitter through 10.

    Emanuel already beat us once, he neutralizes the running game, but he’s also been bad in the post season and our lineup is stuffed with righthanded hitters. Moss, their righthander, already lost to Rodon once. Thornton gave our righty heavy lineup fits. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him, even though he’s a frosh.

  22. Dogbreath 06/14/2013 at 11:52 PM #

    I think it would be a good idea, and the appropriate thing to do, to put an asterisk next to any mention of UNC. Starting with the paragraph in the story above. An asterisk should always accompany a UNC won/loss record, any awards, trophies, diplomas, etc.

  23. redisgood 06/15/2013 at 10:05 AM #

    I listened to an interview with Fox last night, and Emanuel is definitely getting the start. As he said, in this kind of a format you can’t worry about the next game. The 1st game is especially critical.

  24. WolfTrack 06/15/2013 at 11:08 AM #

    As a side note, Auburn has hired Sunny Golloway from Oklahoma so they won’t be coming for Avent anytime soon.

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